Earnings Preview · 30 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $3.77 a share on revenue near $17.3B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $16.20 of earnings per share against $3.54 over the last twelve, growth of about 358%. The median analyst target is $288 (range $200 to $325), 1% below the $289.99 share price, across 27 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +2.3% in the five sessions after the print and +6.0% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +3.8%; after a miss, +13.8%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 68% prices a one-week move of roughly ±9.4% (about $262.84 to $317.14). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $260 and the heaviest call open interest at $320; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $289.99 the shares sit 1% below the 52-week high of $292.58 and 52% above the low of $190.75 (97% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $266.12, below the price. The 200-day average is $232.89, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 10% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Our fair-value estimate is $322.22 against the current share price of $289.99. The shares trade at 82.1 times trailing earnings and 17.9 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 10% with net margins near 10%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.12, five-day price change -0.9%, as of 2026-10-27, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
