Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
AGNC Investment Corp holds its Markdown at $9.91. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$9.91
Valuation
4.93 trailing · 6.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
0.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
196.05%
Below 5%
196.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government Backed Mortgages Still Carry Real Risks
Picture a fund that hands private capital to US housing by buying mortgage securities the government stands behind. AGNC does exactly that yet our fair value sits only seven percent above the current price, leaving almost no margin once the narrow moat is considered.
Forward earnings sit at seven and a half times with a ninety two percent profit margin and thirteen percent return on equity, but eight analysts call it a hold and place their median target at twelve dollars, matching our own reading. Opportunity rating stays none.
Rate moves and housing cycles can crush spreads without warning, and the narrow moat offers scant defence when funding costs rise. Ethical screen passes yet nothing here signals a compelling case. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGNC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$10.96-2.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-20Markdown$11.22+8.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Markdown$10.31+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-16Markdown$10.31+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Markdown$10.31+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$10.31Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
