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The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Travelers Companies (The)
TRV · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $81.6B · 34,000 employees
The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals i…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
402.89 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 14:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price402.89 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.62, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price402.89 USD
Fair value329.75
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-23Read Accumulation383.89+4.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-15Read Markdown368.75+9.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation363.04+11.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-09-15Read Markdown365.66+10.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Travelers Companies (The) holds its Accumulation at $402.89. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 45 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 45 days
Price at the screen
$402.89
Valuation
10.47 trailing · 12.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Travelers Companies (The) does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TRV does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $329.75 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.2% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $329.75, with a range of $248.89 to $404.44, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer priced for growth it cannot deliver
Picture a homeowner paying premiums every month for the promise of cover when disaster strikes. Travelers has built a solid book of that business across the United States, yet revenue has flatlined and the shares now trade at 369 dollars against a fair value nearer 301 dollars.
We pass for two clear reasons. The forward multiple of 12.7 times offers little margin when growth sits at zero, while the ethical screen flags the business on activity grounds. A 27 percent return on equity and 17 percent profit margin look respectable, but they do not offset the valuation gap or the ethical breach.
The stock may drift with the broader market and analyst targets hover around 340 dollars, yet paying a premium for no growth while failing a basic values check is not a combination we accept. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRV trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$402.89+1.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $377.
2026-10-30Accumulation$398.27+3.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $377.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $373.
2026-10-16Markdown$383.89+4.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown · changed$368.75+0.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Accumulation$368.75+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Accumulation$368.75+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Accumulation$368.75+1.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $361. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$363.04+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $360. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
