Earnings Preview · 27 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Excluded industry: Banks – Diversified. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $9.51 of earnings per share against $7.00 over the last twelve, growth of about 36%. The median analyst target is $102 (range $101 to $115), 20% above the $85.06 share price, across 3 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 6 reports, the shares moved an average of -2.0% in the five sessions after the print and -0.3% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -2.6%; after a miss, +1.9%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $85.06 the shares sit 21% below the 52-week high of $107.92 and 32% above the low of $64.65 (47% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $100.05, above the price. The 200-day average is $89.79, above the price.
Valuation going in
Our fair-value work puts the shares about 26% below what the business is worth: value on offer. Our fair-value estimate is $115.24 against the current share price of $85.06. The shares trade at 13.4 times trailing earnings and 9.9 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 25% with net margins near 38%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.15, five-day price change -4.1%, as of 2026-10-23, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
