Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price40.14 USD
Fair value50.93
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-16Read Accumulation40.14+0.0% to today ✓
2026-08-16Read Distribution47.22-15.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup47.33-15.2% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Veracyte, Inc. holds its Distribution at $40.14. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$40.14
Valuation
28.67 trailing · 20.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.58%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
28.96%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.46%
Below 5%
Only 2.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 26.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +47% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Diagnostics priced for perfection it cannot deliver
A patient waits for a genomic test result that could change everything, yet the real question is whether the company behind it can ever justify its current price tag. Veracyte trades at $59 against our fair value of $48.52, a margin of safety that sits at minus 18 percent. With a forward multiple of 30.9 times earnings, revenue growth of 22 percent and a profit margin of 16 percent look respectable on paper, yet they sit alongside a modest 7 percent return on equity and an unknown moat. We pass.
The business offers Afirma and Decipher classifiers that help doctors decide on thyroid and prostate cancers. Eleven analysts still carry a buy rating with a median target of $55. Those targets sit below the current quote, and the ethical screen clears without issue. None of that closes the gap between what the market is asking and what the cash flows appear able to support.
High multiples on a company with single-digit returns on equity often signal that growth must keep accelerating just to stand still. Any slowdown in test adoption or reimbursement pressure would expose that gap quickly. Currency moves and competitive shifts in diagnostics add further uncertainty. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VCYT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 15.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Markup$47.33+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (10 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Markup$47.33+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$47.33Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
