Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price72.13 USD
Fair value48.69
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-24Read Accumulation69.16+4.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since October
2026-10-21Read Markup66.68+8.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 23% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation54.33+32.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 15% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Markup47.31+52.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 106% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CareDx, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $72.13. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$72.13
Valuation
33.25 trailing · 53.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
6.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 6.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
27.05%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 27.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.15%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.42%
Below 5%
Only 2.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
CareDx, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 6%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CDNA passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Transplant Tests Grow Fast But Price Overreaches
Picture a lab racing to track organ rejection with donor DNA tests while hospitals scramble to keep patients stable. CareDx sits at the centre of that urgent workflow, delivering revenue growth near 39 percent a year in a market that only expands as transplants rise. The business clears our ethical screen without issue, yet the shares sit 25 percent above our fair value and still lose money.
A 35 times forward earnings multiple on negative profit margins and negative return on equity leaves little room for disappointment. Analyst targets cluster around 35 dollars, already below the current quote, so the market appears to be paying up for growth that has yet to turn into cash or returns. Unknown competitive protection adds another layer of uncertainty to any sustained edge.
High valuations on unprofitable operations often compress when growth slows or reimbursement tightens, and this name carries both risks in plain sight. The combination of stretched pricing and absent earnings leaves no margin of safety today.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CDNA trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Accumulation$72.13+4.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$69.16+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$69.16+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$69.16+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$69.16+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$69.16+3.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup$66.68+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$66.68+4.7%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 106% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-10-14Accumulation$63.67+17.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 17.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. Since the last review it dropped out of the Titan Ethical 500; its composite score eased.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
