Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.65, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price113.94 USD
Fair value81.34
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation113.32+0.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown105.76+7.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Accumulation105.76+7.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Distribution93.39+22.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
BillionToOne, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $113.94. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$113.94
Valuation
180.78 trailing · 76.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.21%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
84.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 85.0% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
2.54%
Below 5%
Only 2.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
BillionToOne,'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 85% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $81.34 fair value estimate, 64.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 40.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $81.34, with a range of $81.34 to $93.54, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Molecular Counting Tech Priced Well Beyond Reach
Picture a lab that can count single DNA molecules to spot disease earlier than rivals. BillionToOne has built exactly that platform and is growing revenue at 84 percent a year. Yet the shares trade at 130 dollars against our fair value of 71 dollars, a 45 percent gap the wrong way. The forward multiple sits at 126 times earnings while profit margins remain just 7 percent and return on equity only 9 percent. That combination leaves no margin of safety and earns an opportunity rating of none.
Analysts still rate the stock a buy with a 120 dollar median target, but those forecasts ignore the valuation stretch. An unknown moat and limited scale in a competitive diagnostics field add further doubt. The ethical screen clears, yet price alone rules the name out for us.
High growth often hides how quickly multiples can compress once revenue normalises. Currency swings or reimbursement changes could hit hard from here. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BLLN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$110.45-2.5%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$113.32+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$113.32+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$114.00+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$114.00+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$114.00+10.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$103.50+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$103.50+0.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown$102.73-2.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.