GRAIL, Inc., a commercial-stage healthcare company, provides multi-cancer early detection testing and services in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
107.97 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 107.97 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 75.00, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price107.97 USD
Fair value75.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-31Read Markup79.59+35.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation59.85+80.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GRAIL, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $107.97. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$107.97
Valuation
N/A trailing · -8.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
3.25
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
22.41%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 22.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.17%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
19.47%
Below 5%
19.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 30.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cancer Test Business Still Deep in the Red
A blood test that promises to spot cancer early sounds like a breakthrough, yet GRAIL keeps posting losses that dwarf its sales. Revenue is rising at 28 percent, but the company is still losing 253 pence for every pound it brings in, with return on equity at minus 16 percent and a forward multiple that sits at minus 7.5 times because earnings remain negative. Our fair value sits at 70 dollars against a 72.62 dollar price, so there is no margin of safety and the opportunity rating is none.
The analyst crowd rates the shares a buy with a 70 dollar median target, yet those forecasts ignore how far the firm is from turning a profit. Ethical screens clear the business, which is why we even looked, but the numbers do not support paying up for a commercial-stage test that has yet to prove it can scale without burning cash.
Risk sits in the execution gap. A single missed reimbursement decision or slower adoption among over-50s could widen losses further, and an unknown moat leaves the firm exposed to bigger diagnostics players. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GRAL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-31Markup · changed$79.59+9.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-31Accumulation$72.62+21.3%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 21.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-18Accumulation$59.85+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-03Accumulation$59.85+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$59.85Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
