Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation, a commercial-stage company, develops an immune medicine platform for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.08, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price28.37 USD
Fair value31.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Markdown25.58+10.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-20Read Accumulation24.93+13.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 42% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown17.60+61.2% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation holds its Markdown at $28.37. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$28.37
Valuation
N/A trailing · -140.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.44%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.58%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.41%
Below 5%
Only 3.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Adaptive Biotechnologies clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 15%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 3% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ADPT passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Immune sequencing bets still lose cash at scale
Every new immune test that gets ordered in a hospital lab adds another line of revenue for Adaptive Biotechnologies, yet the company still burns cash on every sale. Revenue is growing at 35 percent, which sounds promising for a commercial-stage diagnostics platform, but forward earnings sit at minus 96.7 times sales and profit margins remain negative 17 percent.
We pass because the numbers do not support ownership at current prices. The stock trades above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, return on equity is minus 24 percent, and no economic moat is visible. Analyst targets cluster around the present quote, offering no cushion against further dilution or slower test adoption.
Risk sits with execution and cash burn in a market that already prices in strong buy ratings. Losses could widen if clinical uptake stalls, and the ethical screen offers no offset for the weak financial profile. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADPT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markdown$28.37+12.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$25.33+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$25.33-1.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-19Markdown · changed$25.58-3.4%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-12Accumulation$26.49-4.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Accumulation$27.86+4.4%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-19Accumulation$26.68+7.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-20Markdown$22.92+30.2%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 30.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-18Markdown$17.60+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $20.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
