Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.69, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price31.75 USD
Fair value42.47
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Accumulation36.14-12.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-08Read Markdown35.28-10.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-08-07Read Accumulation36.12-12.1% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Distribution37.22-14.7% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Napco Security Technologies, Inc. holds its Distribution at $31.75. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 75 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 75 days
Price at the screen
$31.75
Valuation
32.17 trailing · 22.10 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.69%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
8.12%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
57.13%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 57.1% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
2.10%
Below 5%
Only 2.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Napco Security Technologies,'s business is fine, but its receivables are about 57% of its assets, just over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when NSSC's ethical verdict changes
Today NSSC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $42.47 fair value, 10.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $42.47, with a range of $42.47 to $48.84, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 10%-growth business trading at just 22.1x forward earnings. That is a 25% discount to our $42.47 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 6 analysts rate it Strong Buy with a $50.00 average target, about 57% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NSSC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$39.35+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$39.35+1.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$38.82+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$38.82+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$38.82+0.6%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$38.60+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$38.60+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$38.60+10.2%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50. Since the last review it its composite score eased. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$35.02-3.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $50.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
