The Screen · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
ADT Inc.
ADT · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.2B · 12,200 employees
ADT Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.05 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
ADT Inc. holds its Markdown at $7.05. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 108 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 108 days
Price at the screen
$7.05
Valuation
9.79 trailing · 7.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.61%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home alarms that stopped growing the business
Picture a household alarm that still works but rarely gets upgraded or expanded. ADT sits in that spot, selling burglar systems and smart cameras across the United States at a time when revenue barely moves, up just 1 percent. The shares trade at 7.2 times forward earnings with a 12 percent profit margin and 17 percent return on equity, yet the opportunity rating stays at none because the underlying growth engine has stalled and the competitive moat remains unclear.
We pass because low single-digit revenue growth rarely justifies even a depressed multiple once customers shift to newer platforms. Analyst targets sit only a dollar above the current price, offering little margin once modest execution slips occur. The ethical screen clears without issue, but that alone does not create a compelling investment case.
Risk sits with execution in a competitive market where larger technology firms can bundle similar features at lower cost. Currency and cyclical housing swings add further pressure on already thin top-line gains. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ADT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Accumulation · changed$7.65+9.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-20Markdown · changed$7.00+2.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-18Distribution$6.80+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-16Distribution$6.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $8.
2026-07-03Distribution$6.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$6.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
