Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.48, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price180.55 USD
Fair value182.85
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup156.54+15.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-11Read Distribution155.43+16.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Accumulation155.43+16.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-09-21Read Markdown151.27+19.4% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Allegion holds its Markup at $180.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$180.55
Valuation
20.60 trailing · 16.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.30%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Allegion's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 38% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-29. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ALLE's ethical verdict changes
Today ALLE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 1% discount to our $182.85 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 12.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every secure door click hides a debt load
Think of Allegion as the quiet provider of locks and exit systems that keep offices, homes and factories safe across the Americas and beyond. The business shows solid 10% revenue growth, a 15% profit margin and 34% return on equity, with a moderate moat that supports steady demand. Yet the opportunity rating is avoid because the company fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
The numbers appear reasonable at a 14.3 times forward earnings multiple and a share price well below our fair value estimate. Still, high leverage crosses a line we do not accept regardless of growth or analyst targets clustered around 165 dollars. This is exactly what the screen is designed to catch.
Currency moves, construction cycles and any rise in interest costs could quickly pressure margins and cash flow. The ethical flag remains the binding constraint. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALLE trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markup · changed$156.54+0.0%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $182.
2026-10-18Distribution$156.54+0.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $178.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $178.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $175.
2026-09-21Markdown · changed$151.27-10.3%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (11 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $175.
2026-08-21Markup · changed$168.70+22.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-21Distribution$137.24+5.4%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-18Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-17Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-03Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
