The Screen · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Allegion
ALLE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $12.9B · 13,300 employees
Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
151.27 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Allegion holds its Markdown at $151.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$151.27
Valuation
19.85 trailing · 15.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.30%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $182.74 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 12.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every secure door click hides a debt load
Think of Allegion as the quiet provider of locks and exit systems that keep offices, homes and factories safe across the Americas and beyond. The business shows solid 10% revenue growth, a 15% profit margin and 34% return on equity, with a moderate moat that supports steady demand. Yet the opportunity rating is avoid because the company fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
The numbers appear reasonable at a 14.3 times forward earnings multiple and a share price well below our fair value estimate. Still, high leverage crosses a line we do not accept regardless of growth or analyst targets clustered around 165 dollars. This is exactly what the screen is designed to catch.
Currency moves, construction cycles and any rise in interest costs could quickly pressure margins and cash flow. The ethical flag remains the binding constraint. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALLE trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$168.70+22.9%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-21Distribution$137.24+5.4%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-18Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-17Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $166.
2026-07-03Distribution$130.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$130.16Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
