Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.42, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.17 USD
Fair value35.95
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown27.53-8.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-11-01Read Distribution28.52-11.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-29Read Markdown27.36-8.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-11Read Distribution31.36-19.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The GEO Group, Inc. holds its Markdown at $25.17. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$25.17
Valuation
12.92 trailing · 16.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.34%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
The GEO Group,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 45% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when GEO's ethical verdict changes
Today GEO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $35.95 fair value, 15.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $35.95, with a range of $32.40 to $40.00, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government lockups pay steady but carry heavy strings
Picture a contractor that builds and runs the secure sites governments need for detention and reentry. GEO delivers that service across four countries, with revenue up 17 percent and a 19 percent return on equity at a forward multiple of 17.7 times. Profit margins sit at 10 percent and the shares trade 13 percent below our fair value, while four analysts rate the name strong buy with a median target near 34 dollars. The ethical screen clears, which removes one obvious red flag.
Yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Government contracts dominate the book and can shift quickly with policy changes or budget fights. That leaves thin visibility on sustained growth even when current numbers look solid. Unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty around long-term pricing power.
The shares already price in some of those contract risks, but any sudden cut in capacity or fresh regulatory pressure could erase the modest discount fast. Numbers alone do not turn this into a clear case. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GEO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markdown · changed$27.53-1.9%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Distribution$28.07-1.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$28.52+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$28.52+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$27.36+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$27.36+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown · changed$27.36-1.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$27.64-14.1%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 31% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-18Distribution$32.19+2.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
