NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,250+6.34%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
The GEO Group, Inc.
GEO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.1B · 20,000 employees
The GEO Group, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
31.26 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
The GEO Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $31.26. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$31.26
Valuation
14.75 trailing · 18.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.34%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government lockups pay steady but carry heavy strings
Picture a contractor that builds and runs the secure sites governments need for detention and reentry. GEO delivers that service across four countries, with revenue up 17 percent and a 19 percent return on equity at a forward multiple of 17.7 times. Profit margins sit at 10 percent and the shares trade 13 percent below our fair value, while four analysts rate the name strong buy with a median target near 34 dollars. The ethical screen clears, which removes one obvious red flag.
Yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Government contracts dominate the book and can shift quickly with policy changes or budget fights. That leaves thin visibility on sustained growth even when current numbers look solid. Unknown competitive moat adds another layer of uncertainty around long-term pricing power.
The shares already price in some of those contract risks, but any sudden cut in capacity or fresh regulatory pressure could erase the modest discount fast. Numbers alone do not turn this into a clear case. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GEO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-31Markup$29.46+3.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-18Markup$28.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30.
2026-07-03Markup$28.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$28.44Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
