The Screen · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
The Brink's Company
BCO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.6B · 63,600 employees
The Brink's Company provides cash and valuables management, digital retail solutions (DRS), and automated teller machines (ATM) managed services in North America, Latin America, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
111.98 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
The Brink's Company holds its Distribution at $111.98. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$111.98
Valuation
25.92 trailing · 10.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.90%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.52%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Armoured trucks carry cash but thin margins warn
Think of Brink's as the firm whose vans move cash between banks, shops and ATMs every hour across dozens of countries. The shares sit at a 36 percent discount to our fair value with an 11.3 times forward multiple and 10 percent revenue growth, yet we still pass. A 3 percent profit margin and unknown moat leave little room for error despite the high reported return on equity.
The business clears our ethical screen, which rules out several names on similar valuations. Limited analyst coverage and a median target only modestly above the current price add to the sense that the market is not missing an obvious bargain. Revenue growth looks respectable, but converting it into durable profits remains the open question.
Risk sits with the narrow margins that could vanish quickly if fuel costs rise, labour tightens or cash volumes fall in a slower economy. Unknown competitive protection makes any recovery in earnings harder to count on. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BCO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153.
2026-07-22Markup · changed$120.12+17.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153.
2026-07-18Distribution$101.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153.
2026-07-03Distribution$101.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$101.94Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
