Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.49, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.52 USD
Fair value45.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution32.41-5.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-08-26Read Markup32.27-5.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-26Read Accumulation30.65-0.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 3 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup27.10+12.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CoreCivic, Inc. holds its Distribution at $30.52. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$30.52
Valuation
24.42 trailing · 12.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
16.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
CoreCivic,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CXW's ethical verdict changes
Today CXW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 32% discount to our $45.00 fair value, 27.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $45.00, with a range of $36.26 to $60.44, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Private prisons look steady but we pass
Every time a state or federal agency needs space for offenders, operators like CoreCivic step in with beds and management. The business is growing revenue at 26 percent, carries a forward P/E of 14.4 times and clears our ethical screen. Yet the opportunity rating sits at none, so we move on.
Fair value sits 28 percent above the current price and analysts lean strong buy, yet profit margins of just 6 percent and return on equity of 9 percent leave little room for error. Unknown moat and heavy reliance on government contracts make the setup fragile once policy or budgets shift.
Risk sits in occupancy swings and political pressure that can cut volumes overnight. The low multiple reflects those realities rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CXW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$30.97+0.3%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$30.88+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$30.88+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$30.88-0.6%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$31.08+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$31.08+3.5%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$30.04+1.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$29.52-5.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Distribution$31.23-5.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 24% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Distribution$32.93+1.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $30. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
