An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · InterContinental Hotels Group PLC owns, manages, franchises, and leases hotels in the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $159.51
Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR holds its Markup at $159.51.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 288 days
Price
$159.51
Valuation
32.82 trailing · 23.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.03
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$159.51
32.82 P/E · 23.52 fwd
Our fair value
$143.61
10% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$138.00
-13% to current
Target low $108.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $188.00
▲ current $159.51 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$159.51
you are here
Conservative
$111.91
-30%
Analyst avg
$138.00
-13%
Our fair value
$143.61
-10%
Analyst high
$188.00
+18%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
2.70%
Profit margin
14.61%
Analyst consensus
None · 6 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Hotels Priced for Better Days Than Ahead
Check into a Kimpton or InterContinental and the bill funds a narrow-moat operator that manages and franchises hotels across dozens of countries. Growth sits at just 3 percent while the shares trade at 23 times forward earnings, well above the median analyst target of 138 dollars against a current price of 158.
We pass because the numbers do not stack up. Fair value sits at 143 dollars, leaving no margin of safety, and the modest profit margin of 15 percent offers little cushion in a business that still depends on discretionary travel spending.
Lodging remains cyclical, so any slowdown in holidays or corporate trips quickly hits occupancy and margins. Currency moves and regional demand shocks add further volatility that a narrow moat does little to offset.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-03Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$167.12Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming IHG
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
7 May2026
Tim Moore
Republican
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$148.23
+9.2%
·
$1,092
+9.2%
2 months
$141.48
+14.4%
·
$1,144
+14.4%
3 months
$129.80
+24.7%
$1.26
$1,257
+25.7%
6 months
$135.07
+19.9%
$1.26
$1,208
+20.8%
1 year
$115.91
+39.7%
$1.85
$1,413
+41.3%
2 years
$97.68
+65.8%
$4.67
$1,705
+70.5%
3 years
$65.63
+146.7%
$6.19
$2,561
+156.1%
5 years
$66.52
+143.4%
$8.43
$2,560
+156.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever IHG does next, these words stay.
Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR · IHG · Markup · $159.51
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
