Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price175.56 USD
Fair value143.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-02Read Markup167.81+4.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-11Read Accumulation159.90+9.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation with deal news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Distribution154.60+13.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup167.12+5.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Intercontinental Hotels Group ADR holds its Markup at $175.56. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$175.56
Valuation
34.48 trailing · 23.99 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
86.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 86.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.68%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.94%
Below 5%
Only 0.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Intercontinental Hotels's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 86% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when IHG's ethical verdict changes
Today IHG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $143.98 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 5.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.9% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $143.98, with a range of $112.50 to $186.20, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hotels Priced for Better Days Than Ahead
Check into a Kimpton or InterContinental and the bill funds a narrow-moat operator that manages and franchises hotels across dozens of countries. Growth sits at just 3 percent while the shares trade at 23 times forward earnings, well above the median analyst target of 138 dollars against a current price of 158.
We pass because the numbers do not stack up. Fair value sits at 143 dollars, leaving no margin of safety, and the modest profit margin of 15 percent offers little cushion in a business that still depends on discretionary travel spending.
Lodging remains cyclical, so any slowdown in holidays or corporate trips quickly hits occupancy and margins. Currency moves and regional demand shocks add further volatility that a narrow moat does little to offset.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IHG trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup · changed$167.81+3.3%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-10-26Accumulation$162.40+1.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-09-01Markup$160.22+0.4%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-08-02Markup$159.51-4.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-18Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (6 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $139.
2026-07-03Markup$167.12+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$167.12Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
