Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 2.41, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price390.71 USD
Fair value341.64
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation352.03+11.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-09-04Read Markdown356.60+9.6% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-30Read Markup374.43+4.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Accumulation392.51-0.5% to today First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Marriott International holds its Accumulation at $390.71. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$390.71
Valuation
39.89 trailing · 29.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
62.03%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 62.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.08%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.86%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Marriott International's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $341.64 fair value estimate, 11.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury hotels mask heavy debt burden
Picture a packed hotel lobby where every room books out, yet the owner still owes the bank more than the building is worth. Marriott shows solid revenue growth of 13 percent and a 36 percent profit margin, yet the shares trade above our fair value at a forward multiple of 28 times. That combination, plus the ethical screen failure on debt levels, is why we pass.
The business operates across every major region and carries a buy rating from most analysts, yet the price leaves little margin for the cycles that hit lodging hardest. High debt ratios amplify any slowdown in travel or rise in interest costs.
Lodging remains cyclical by nature, so peak margins and stretched valuations often signal caution rather than opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$385.71+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$385.71+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$385.71+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$385.71+5.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377.
2026-10-14Accumulation$365.88+3.9%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377.
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$356.60-4.8%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377.
2026-08-04Markup$374.43+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$374.43+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$374.43+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $377. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.