NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Lodging
Choice Hotels International, Inc.
CHH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.4B · 1,754 employees
Choice Hotels International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a hotel franchisor in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
96.77 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. holds its Distribution at $96.77. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 71 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 71 days
Price at the screen
$96.77
Valuation
13.71 trailing · 12.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
69.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 69.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Franchised hotels print high returns but trade rich
Picture a company that never owns the bricks and mortar yet still pulls 35% margins from every room booked across its network. Choice runs an asset-light franchising model that throws off exceptional returns on equity while growing revenue at just 4% a year. The ethical screen is cleared, yet the shares sit 13% above fair value with only modest growth on offer.
The 14.6 times forward earnings multiple looks reasonable until you factor in single-digit top-line expansion and a cyclical lodging business. Analysts sit on hold with a median target barely above the current price, and the opportunity rating comes back as none. High ROE is real, but it does not turn an expensive valuation into a compelling case.
Lodging demand can swing sharply with recessions and travel shocks, so the current multiple may simply reflect peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Currency and consumer-spending exposure add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$109.73-1.9%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-24Distribution$111.84+2.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-18Distribution$109.56+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
2026-07-03Distribution$109.56+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$109.56Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
