Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.33, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price117.84 USD
Fair value131.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Markup110.02+7.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation102.31+15.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markup109.73+7.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Distribution109.56+7.6% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Choice Hotels International, Inc. holds its Markup at $117.84. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$117.84
Valuation
26.74 trailing · 15.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
69.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 69.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.65%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.39%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Choice Hotels International,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 69% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 8% discount to our $131.00 fair value, 2.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $131.00, with a range of $124.42 to $207.36, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Franchised hotels print high returns but trade rich
Picture a company that never owns the bricks and mortar yet still pulls 35% margins from every room booked across its network. Choice runs an asset-light franchising model that throws off exceptional returns on equity while growing revenue at just 4% a year. The ethical screen is cleared, yet the shares sit 13% above fair value with only modest growth on offer.
The 14.6 times forward earnings multiple looks reasonable until you factor in single-digit top-line expansion and a cyclical lodging business. Analysts sit on hold with a median target barely above the current price, and the opportunity rating comes back as none. High ROE is real, but it does not turn an expensive valuation into a compelling case.
Lodging demand can swing sharply with recessions and travel shocks, so the current multiple may simply reflect peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain. Currency and consumer-spending exposure add further volatility. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup$111.16+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$111.16+1.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$110.02+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$110.02+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup · changed$110.02-3.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$113.46+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$113.46+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$113.46+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$113.46+7.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-15Accumulation$105.64+3.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $112.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
