Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.32, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price370.45 USD
Fair value296.27
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Markup342.98+8.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 11 days
2026-10-11Read Accumulation313.96+18.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown313.96+18.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-08-29Read Markup329.61+12.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hilton Worldwide holds its Markup at $370.45. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 338 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 338 days
Price at the screen
$370.45
Valuation
48.17 trailing · 34.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
78.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 78.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.55%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hilton Worldwide's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 78% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $296.27 fair value estimate, 5.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $296.27, with a range of $247.50 to $340.71, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hilton's Premium Price Collides With Heavy Debt
Picture a family booking a Hilton room for a long-awaited holiday, the familiar brand promising comfort while the company's balance sheet tells a different story. We pass on Hilton because the shares trade at 321 dollars against our fair value of 292, a forward P/E of 30.8 times leaves no margin of safety, and the business fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
Lodging is cyclical by nature, so revenue growth of 11 percent and a 30 percent profit margin can shrink fast when travel spending turns. The debt load that already fails the screen adds another layer of fragility if interest costs rise or occupancy slips.
Twenty-four analysts may carry a buy rating and a 354 dollar median target, yet none of that changes the simple mismatch between price, leverage and our ethical bar. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HLT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$364.71+6.3%Entry 23
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347.
2026-10-27Markup$342.98+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$342.98+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$342.98+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markup$342.98+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markup$342.98+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markup · changed$342.98+0.0%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$342.98+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$342.98+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$342.98+9.2%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $347.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.