2026-10-25
W. W. Grainger clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
W. W. Grainger
GWW · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $64.8B · 22,100 employees
W.W.
Not yet scored1,451.39 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price1,451.39 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Our regime readAccumulation, as of 5 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.62)
- Last reviewed5 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $990.00 to $1,364.91, base estimate $1,186.88 (screen dated 2026-11-05).
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.62, read 2026-11-05
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price1,451.39 USD
Fair value1,186.88
Ethical score79.8/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-14Read Accumulation1,289.79+12.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown1,243.07+16.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-08-31Read Distribution1,300.34+11.6% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markup1,300.01+11.6% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
W. W. Grainger holds its Accumulation at $1,451.39. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 160 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 160 days |
| Price at the screen | $1,451.39 |
| Valuation | 34.99 trailing · 26.87 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 79.8 |
| Beta | 1.01 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 31.93% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 31.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 32.52% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 32.5% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
W. W. Grainger clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
W. W. Grainger clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $1,186.88 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 10.30% revenue growth.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −7% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $1,186.88, with a range of $990.00 to $1,364.91, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsFactory supply runs still cost too much
Every workshop manager ordering a new pump seal or safety gloves knows the order must arrive fast and the price must stay steady. Grainger delivers both across North America, yet the shares trade at 27.6 times forward earnings against a fair value sixteen percent lower than the current price. Strong returns on equity and double-digit revenue growth do not offset the narrow moat and the clear gap between price and value.
That valuation leaves little room for the industrial cycle to slow or for larger rivals to take share. A hold rating from analysts and a target below the current quote already signal the market sees limited upside. Currency moves and construction spending swings add further volatility that a premium multiple rarely rewards.
The business clears our ethical screen without issue. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 26.9xexpensive even after accounting for its growth |
| Trailing P/E | 35.0xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 39.21 |
| EPS, forward | 51.06 |
| Revenue growth | +10.3%steady growth |
| Profit margin | 9.9%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 46.1%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 1.93% |
| Dividend yield | 0.72% |
| Debt to equity | 0.62moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 2.81comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.01moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.03% |
| 52-week range | 906.52 - 1,419.91 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $64.8B |
| Employees | 22,100 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeGWW trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04
Accumulation $1,397.98
+2.9% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03
Accumulation $1,359.17
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Accumulation $1,359.17
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Accumulation $1,359.17
-0.9% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Accumulation $1,371.86
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Accumulation $1,371.86
+1.6% Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Accumulation $1,349.90
+1.4% Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Accumulation $1,331.17
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Accumulation $1,331.17
+3.2% Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266.
2026-10-14
Accumulation · changed $1,289.79
+3.8% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $1266.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Company News for Nov 5, 2026 Yahoo Finance · 1d ago
- W.W. Grainger Inc (GWW) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Double-Digit Sales Growth, Margin ... Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
- W.W. Grainger, Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
- Grainger (GWW) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
- IBD Stock Of The Day Grainger Surges On Best Revenue Growth In 5 Years Yahoo Finance · 2d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | LEROY JONATHAN MICHAEL | Chief Technology Officer | 854 | $1,051,327 | |
| 2026-05-12 | ROBBINS PAIGE K | Officer | 1,457 | $1,795,450 | |
| 2026-05-12 | THOMSON LAURIE R. | Officer | 313 | $385,519 | |
| 2026-04-02 | MERRIWETHER DEIDRA C | Chief Financial Officer | 1,488 | $1,658,042 | |
| 2026-04-01 | BERARDINELLI KRANTZ NANCY L | Officer | 1,766 | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | LEROY JONATHAN MICHAEL | Chief Technology Officer | 996 | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | ROBBINS PAIGE K | Officer | 2,461 | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | TINTO MELANIE J | Officer | 764 | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | MERRIWETHER DEIDRA C | Chief Financial Officer | 2,946 | · | |
| 2026-04-01 | THOMSON LAURIE R. | Officer | 268 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Jared Moskowitz | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-07-13 | Jared Moskowitz | Democrat | sell | 1K–15K |
| 2026-04-13 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | Purchase | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $1,226.09 | +7.0% | $2.49 | $1,072 | +7.2% |
| 2 months | $1,169.70 | +12.2% | $2.49 | $1,124 | +12.4% |
| 3 months | $1,080.00 | +21.5% | $2.49 | $1,217 | +21.7% |
| 6 months | $1,028.36 | +27.6% | $4.75 | $1,280 | +28.0% |
| 1 year | $1,075.98 | +21.9% | $9.27 | $1,228 | +22.8% |
| 2 years | $882.55 | +48.7% | $17.68 | $1,507 | +50.7% |
| 3 years | $688.52 | +90.5% | $25.31 | $1,942 | +94.2% |
| 5 years | $436.24 | +200.7% | $38.91 | $3,097 | +209.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GWW does next, these words stay.
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