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The Screen · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Watsco Inc
WSO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $13.0B · 6,950 employees
Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price315.38 USD
Fair value300.25
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Markdown315.38+0.0% to today
2026-08-18Read Distribution311.86+1.1% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown380.46-17.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Watsco Inc holds its Markdown at $315.38. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$315.38
Valuation
27.00 trailing · 23.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.80%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.24%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Air conditioning distributor offers little margin of safety
Picture a warehouse full of air conditioning units sitting in the midday sun. Watsco moves those boxes and the parts that keep them running across the Americas. Yet the shares sit 8 percent above our fair value at 26.5 times forward earnings while revenue stays flat.
The business earns a narrow moat and passes our ethical screen with a 19 percent return on equity and 7 percent profit margins. Ten analysts rate it a hold with a 428 dollar median target. None of that changes the simple fact that growth has stalled and the price already bakes in better days.
Risk sits in the narrow moat and zero top line progress. Any slowdown in housing or construction would hit volumes quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WSO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$315.38+1.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 18.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421.
2026-07-18Markdown$380.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421.
2026-07-03Markdown$380.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$380.46Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.