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The Screen · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
WSOWatsco Inc
WSO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.7B · 6,950 employees
Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.08, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price311.14 USD
Fair value252.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Markup299.50+3.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after a 5% slide in 5 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown315.38-1.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-18Read Distribution311.86-0.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution after an 18% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown380.46-18.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Watsco Inc holds its Markup at $311.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$311.14
Valuation
24.41 trailing · 23.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
10.85%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 10.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.80%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.85%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.24%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Watsco clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 11%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today WSO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $252.45 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 2.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $252.45, with a range of $252.45 to $290.31, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Air conditioning distributor offers little margin of safety
Picture a warehouse full of air conditioning units sitting in the midday sun. Watsco moves those boxes and the parts that keep them running across the Americas. Yet the shares sit 8 percent above our fair value at 26.5 times forward earnings while revenue stays flat.
The business earns a narrow moat and passes our ethical screen with a 19 percent return on equity and 7 percent profit margins. Ten analysts rate it a hold with a 428 dollar median target. None of that changes the simple fact that growth has stalled and the price already bakes in better days.
Risk sits in the narrow moat and zero top line progress. Any slowdown in housing or construction would hit volumes quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WSO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$316.71+3.7%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421.
2026-10-27Markup$305.33+1.9%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup$299.50+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup · changed$299.50+0.0%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$299.50+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$299.50+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$299.50+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$299.50+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$299.50+4.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$286.32-12.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $421.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.