Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price40.62 USD
Fair value62.97
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-02Read Markdown44.08-7.8% to today ✓
2026-08-25Read Accumulation45.49-10.7% to today
2026-07-18Read Distribution48.33-16.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Core & Main, Inc. holds its Distribution at $40.62. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 205 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 205 days
Price at the screen
$40.62
Valuation
16.72 trailing · 11.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.74%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 55.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 14 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Water pipes move but revenue does not
Picture a Midwest contractor ordering valves and fittings for a sewer upgrade. Core & Main sits in the middle of that supply chain, shifting water and drainage products across the United States. The business clears a 6 percent profit margin and delivers 24 percent return on equity, yet revenue has gone nowhere in the past year.
We pass because the opportunity rating is none. Forward earnings sit at 14.7 times while sales show zero growth. A 37 percent gap to fair value looks attractive on paper, but flat top-line numbers and an unknown moat leave little reason to get involved even though the ethical screen is clear.
Analysts see modest upside and the shares trade below their median target, yet lack of expansion raises the chance this is simply a steady but unexciting distributor. Currency or construction cycles could still pressure results. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CNM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Markdown$44.08+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Markdown · changed$44.08-3.1%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-25Distribution$45.24-6.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-18Distribution$48.33+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
