Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.56, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price11.64 USD
Fair value16.35
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Distribution12.66-8.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 1 days
2026-11-04Read Markup11.71-0.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
2026-10-25Read Distribution11.18+4.1% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 15% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-10Read Markdown13.22-12.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 21% slide in 10 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
QXO Inc holds its Markup at $11.64. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$11.64
Valuation
N/A trailing · 19.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.07%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.84%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
QXO clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when QXO's ethical verdict changes
Today QXO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 29% discount to our $16.35 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 70.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $16.35, with a range of $12.60 to $18.80, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Roofing distributor with explosive but loss making growth
Picture a small distributor suddenly shipping roofing supplies across the US and Canada at a furious pace. Revenue has jumped more than a hundredfold yet the firm still posts a six percent loss and negative return on equity. Analysts see further upside and our own numbers show a decent margin of safety, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
The narrow moat and forward multiple of nineteen times leave little room for error if growth slows. Ethical checks clear but the business has yet to turn a profit, which keeps the case from stacking up cleanly.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
QXO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markup · changed$11.71+0.3%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$11.68+5.8%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$11.04+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$11.04+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$11.04-3.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$11.38+4.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$10.86-2.9%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-10-18Markdown$11.18+0.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $32.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.