Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.16, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price109.01 USD
Fair value73.28
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Distribution93.64+16.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation104.23+4.6% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 21% rise in 2 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown86.11+26.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown while volume still accumulates
2026-08-18Read Distribution87.09+25.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Xometry, Inc. holds its Markup at $109.01. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$109.01
Valuation
N/A trailing · 85.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.23%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
29.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 29.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.25%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Xometry,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today XMTR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $73.28 fair value estimate, 39.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 48.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $73.28, with a range of $73.28 to $84.27, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Custom parts marketplace priced far beyond reality
Picture a machine shop owner in Ohio needing one-off metal brackets tomorrow. Xometry promises AI instant quotes and global suppliers to deliver. Yet the shares trade at nearly twice our fair value with no margin of safety, leaving little room for the promised growth to justify the cost.
Revenue is rising 36 percent, yet the business still posts a negative 7 percent profit margin and negative 17 percent return on equity. A forward multiple of 72 times earnings prices in flawless execution that the current numbers do not support. Analysts like the story, but their $89 median target still sits well below today's price.
High growth in a new marketplace always carries execution and competition risk, and losses can linger longer than expected. The ethical screen is clear, yet the valuation leaves no cushion for disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XMTR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$93.65+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$93.65+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$93.65+5.4%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$88.88+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$88.88+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$88.88-5.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$93.64+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$93.64+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$95.15-8.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
