Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price86.11 USD
Fair value67.88
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-17Read Markdown86.11+0.0% to today
2026-08-18Read Distribution87.09-1.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup86.99-1.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Xometry, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $86.11. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$86.11
Valuation
N/A trailing · 66.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.23%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
29.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 29.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.97%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.25%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Custom parts marketplace priced far beyond reality
Picture a machine shop owner in Ohio needing one-off metal brackets tomorrow. Xometry promises AI instant quotes and global suppliers to deliver. Yet the shares trade at nearly twice our fair value with no margin of safety, leaving little room for the promised growth to justify the cost.
Revenue is rising 36 percent, yet the business still posts a negative 7 percent profit margin and negative 17 percent return on equity. A forward multiple of 72 times earnings prices in flawless execution that the current numbers do not support. Analysts like the story, but their $89 median target still sits well below today's price.
High growth in a new marketplace always carries execution and competition risk, and losses can linger longer than expected. The ethical screen is clear, yet the valuation leaves no cushion for disappointment. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
XMTR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$86.11-1.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-18Markup$86.99+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 145%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 46%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $85.
2026-07-03Markup$86.99+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$86.99Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
