The Screen · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Fastenal
FAST · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $56.7B · 21,763 employees
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Fastenal holds its Markdown at $49.38. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 47 days
Price at the screen
$49.38
Valuation
42.21 trailing · 35.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.0
Beta
0.71
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
8.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 8.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.12%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.07%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $37.51 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 14.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 24.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a factory floor where every fastener and fitting arrives without delay through Fastenal's tight distribution network across North America and beyond. The business delivers 15% revenue growth, 15% profit margins and a 34% return on equity with a moderate moat that keeps customers coming back.
Yet the shares change hands at 32.5 times forward earnings, 19% above our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around the current price with a consensus hold rating, so the valuation already prices in the strengths and leaves little room for error.
Industrial spending can drop sharply when cycles turn, and a moderate moat offers limited defence against bigger rivals. The ethical screen passes but the price does not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FAST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup · changed$50.66+6.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-28Markdown$47.64+1.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Markdown$46.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Markdown$46.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$46.79Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.