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The Screen · Industrials · Industrial Distribution
FASTFastenal
FAST · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $57.8B · 21,763 employees
Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-04
Options put/call open interest 0.18, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price51.55 USD
Fair value39.08
Ethical score89.0/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation50.43+2.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-08-28Read Markup50.66+1.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown46.79+10.2% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Fastenal holds its Accumulation at $51.55. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 115 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 115 days
Price at the screen
$51.55
Valuation
42.69 trailing · 35.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.0
Beta
0.69
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
8.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 8.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
30.12%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 30.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.07%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Fastenal clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 9%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FAST passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $39.08 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 15.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a factory floor where every fastener and fitting arrives without delay through Fastenal's tight distribution network across North America and beyond. The business delivers 15% revenue growth, 15% profit margins and a 34% return on equity with a moderate moat that keeps customers coming back.
Yet the shares change hands at 32.5 times forward earnings, 19% above our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around the current price with a consensus hold rating, so the valuation already prices in the strengths and leaves little room for error.
Industrial spending can drop sharply when cycles turn, and a moderate moat offers limited defence against bigger rivals. The ethical screen passes but the price does not. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FAST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$50.38+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-10-21Accumulation$50.38-0.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-10-14Accumulation$50.75+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Accumulation$50.75+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Accumulation$50.75+0.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Accumulation$50.43+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Accumulation$50.43+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-08-28Markup · changed$50.66+6.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-28Markdown$47.64+1.8%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $47.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.