FAST
Fastenal
Industrials · Trading Companies & Distributors · US
$43.13
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

MODERATE MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$49.5B
Trailing P/E
38.17
Forward P/E
31.54
Rev Growth
+12.4%
Profit Margin
15.4%
ROE
33.8%
Analyst Target
$46.58
Recommendation
HOLD
About Fastenal

Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $43, 154% above fair value of $17. Moderate competitive position. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 63% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.09%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.30%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 89.0
Score Valuation: 30.5
Score Quality: 81.2
Score Combined: 56.2
Fair Value Est: $16.96 · Margin of Safety: -154.3% · Tier: OVERVALUED

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

Unlock with Membership
Opportunity Scores
Valuation45.9
Quality88.7
Cash Flow22.5
Moat50.0
Balance Sheet100.0
Debt Purity73.5
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity98.7
Compliance88.7
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 45.0 · Rank: #3126
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-130.32Pending--
2026-04-130.300.30+0.7%
2026-01-200.260.26+0.6%
2025-10-130.300.29-2.4%
2025-07-140.270.29+7.3%
2025-04-110.260.26+0.1%
2025-01-170.240.23-3.7%
2024-10-110.260.26+1.1%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$2.2B$339.8M$493.7M$982.9M$447.6M0.30
2025-12-31$2.0B$294.0M$430.0M$898.7M$384.3M0.26
2025-09-30$2.1B$335.5M$487.2M$965.8M$441.5M0.29
2025-06-30$2.1B$330.3M$483.9M$942.8M$436.1M0.29
2025-03-31$2.0B$298.7M$439.5M$883.9M$393.9M0.26
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-04-24ANCIUS MICHAEL JDirector1,000$44.9K
2026-03-05WISECUP REYNE KAYDirector36,920$480.0K
2026-03-05WISECUP REYNE KAYDirector36,920$1.7M
2026-01-23SATTERLEE SCOTT ALANDirector15,964$303.3K
2026-01-23SATTERLEE SCOTT ALANDirector15,964$705.5K
2025-12-12ANCIUS MICHAEL JDirector1,500$63.0K
2025-11-19NIELSEN SARAH NDirector1,000$39.6K
2025-11-18ANCIUS MICHAEL JDirector2,000$27.5K
2025-11-17JOHNSON DANIEL L.Director1,000$40.4K
2025-11-13HSU HSENGHUNG SAMDirector1,000$40.8K
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.104.8M$4.6B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC74.6M$3.3B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC64.4M$2.8B0.1%
State Street Corporation55.6M$2.4B0.0%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.39.4M$1.7B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC38.9M$1.7B0.0%
Morgan Stanley25.7M$1.1B0.0%
Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation24.7M$1.1B0.0%
Wellington Management Group, LLP16.6M$729.1M0.0%
Bank of America Corporation16.3M$715.9M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
5
7
2
3
17 analysts
2 Months Ago
5
8
2
3
18 analysts
Last Month
5
9
2
3
19 analysts
Current
5
7
2
3
17 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$50.6B
Price/Book
12.64
Beta
0.744
Analysts
12
Total Revenue (TTM)
$8.4B
Total Debt
$445.5M
Earnings Growth
+13.8%
Dividend Yield
2.1%
Rec. Mean
2.82
Short Ratio
3.28
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
21,763

Elite Intelligence

Trade Consideration with position sizing, convergence signals, and risk analysis. Available to Elite members.

Upgrade to Elite
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 56.2 (P88 — top 12.1% of scored tickers). Moderate Moat. Ethical PASS. 12 analysts at Hold.
Price: $43.13 | Target: $46.66 (+8%) | Fair Value: $16.96 (+-61%)
Score
56
Moat
MODERATE
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+8%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+12.4%
Profit Margin15.4%
ROE33.8%
Forward P/E31.5
Market Cap$49.5B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-13$0.32Pending
2026-04-13$0.30$0.30+0.7%
2026-01-20$0.26$0.26+0.6%
2025-10-13$0.30$0.29-2.4%
2025-07-14$0.27$0.29+7.3%
2025-04-11$0.26$0.26+0.1%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $36.66 (-15%) | Entry: $43.13
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($46.66, 12 analysts)
10$431.32+$35.30 (8%)0.5R
50$2,156.61+$176.50 (8%)0.5R
100$4,313.22+$353.00 (8%)0.5R
To Fair Value ($16.96)
10$431.32+$-261.70 (-61%)-4.0R
50$2,156.61+$-1,308.50 (-61%)-4.0R
100$4,313.22+$-2,617.00 (-61%)-4.0R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (3.28 days to cover)
  • Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Fastenal passes all ethical screens and holds a moderate competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
44.8
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.0%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-3.4%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
1.09
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-21.9%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.5x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
GWW0.680
MSM0.623
ITW0.611
XLI0.585
DOV0.537
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
SUKOON.AE-0.178
TREVQ-0.162
MAZAYA.KW-0.146
COL.AX-0.132
LBRX-0.130
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Friday
Worst Day
Monday
Best Month
Jul
Worst Month
Dec
Fri-Mon Effect
0.2717605887825362
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+3.5%
Beat Drift Positive %
66.7%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-0.0%
3M Return
-1.7%
6M Return
+14.8%
12M Return
+11.4%
Momentum Rank
#2209
Momentum Signal
FLAT

Get our daily market read free. Join thousands of traders.

Free Explorer Access