Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.35, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price235.65 USD
Fair value270.86
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation226.36+4.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with volume flow in agreement
2026-10-02Read Markdown221.49+6.4% to today Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-29Read Markup232.67+1.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Markdown230.08+2.4% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc holds its Accumulation at $235.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 239 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 239 days
Price at the screen
$235.65
Valuation
23.82 trailing · 19.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.11
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.65%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.16%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ferguson Enterprises's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FERG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 8% discount to our $270.86 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $270.86, with a range of $211.50 to $317.15, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Essential pipes and valves but no edge
Picture a plumber in Texas needing valves by tomorrow. Ferguson gets the parts there through a network of branches across the US and Canada. The business clears a 6% profit margin on steady demand for plumbing and HVAC kit, yet revenue is rising only 4% and the moat stays narrow.
We pass. At 18.5 times forward earnings the shares sit above our threshold for a genuine opportunity, even with a 16% gap to our fair value of 268.25 from the current 232.02 price. Analysts may cluster around a 285 target, but narrow competitive protection and modest growth leave little margin for error.
Housing cycles and input cost swings remain real threats that could compress those thin margins quickly. The ethical screen clears, yet that alone does not create an investment case.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FERG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$235.65-5.2%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-05Accumulation$248.53+2.7%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$241.99+1.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$238.68+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$238.68+5.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$226.36+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$220.04-0.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$221.49-4.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285.
2026-08-29Markup · changed$232.67-0.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $285.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
