Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.08, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price17.16 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-14Read Markdown20.00-14.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 7 weeks
2026-08-29Read Accumulation23.10-25.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 20% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-30Read Distribution19.27-10.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 40% slide in 4 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup31.87-46.2% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. holds its Markdown at $17.16. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$17.16
Valuation
N/A trailing · -9.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Firefly Aerospace does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.06x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space defence firm trips the ethical line
Picture a rocket lifting off with a government payload on board. Firefly builds launch services aimed at national security customers, yet that exact focus fails our ethical screen on prohibited defence activity. We pass for that reason alone, regardless of the numbers underneath.
Revenue is rising fast at 45% a year, but the company still posts a negative 194% profit margin and a negative 62% return on equity. The forward multiple of minus 15 times simply reflects ongoing heavy losses with no clear path to steady cash flow yet.
Risk starts with the ethical failure and runs on from there into execution in a crowded launch market where margins have proved elusive for most players. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FLY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markdown$17.16+0.9%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Markdown$17.02-5.1%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$17.93+7.8%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$16.64+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-10-21Markdown$16.64-16.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-10-14Markdown · changed$20.00-12.5%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-10-02Accumulation$22.86-1.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 39.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Markup$31.87+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $47.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
