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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Redwire Corporation
RDW · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.2B · 1,400 employees
Redwire Corporation provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.12 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 08:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price8.12 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.70, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.12 USD
Fair value15.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown11.27-28.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Accumulation11.27-28.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 3 weeks
2026-09-11Read Markdown10.53-22.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-11Read Distribution10.63-23.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 30% slide in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Redwire Corporation holds its Markdown at $8.12. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$8.12
Valuation
N/A trailing · -27.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
3.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Redwire does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when RDW's ethical verdict changes
Today RDW does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 46% discount to our $15.00 fair value, 89.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $15.00, with a range of $8.00 to $16.24, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space contracts hit ethical wall at Redwire
Redwire builds the sensors and hardware that keep satellites and defence systems running. Growth looks solid at 58 percent, and analysts see a path to $15 from the current price. Yet the ethical screen blocks any further look because aerospace and defence work sits on the prohibited list.
The business still loses money at scale. Profit margins sit at minus 81 percent and return on equity is minus 49 percent, so the forward multiple of minus 20.6 times simply reflects ongoing losses rather than value. Unknown competitive protection leaves little cushion if contracts shift or delays mount.
High cash burn and dependence on government budgets add real volatility on top of the ethical block. The screen exists for exactly these cases. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RDW trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$8.12-3.2%Entry 17
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Markdown$8.39+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markdown$8.39+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markdown$8.39-5.6%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$8.89+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$8.89+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$8.89+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$8.89+3.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$8.62+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markdown$8.62-23.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 23.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (9 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $14. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
