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The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Ducommun Incorporated
DCO · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.5B · 2,130 employees
Ducommun Incorporated provides engineering and manufacturing services for products and applications used in the aerospace and defense, industrial, medical, and other industries in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
166.70 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 08:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price166.70 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.88, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price166.70 USD
Fair value152.37
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Distribution170.59-2.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-20Read Markdown170.59-2.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-13Read Distribution170.56-2.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup164.54+1.3% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ducommun Incorporated holds its Distribution at $166.70. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$166.70
Valuation
N/A trailing · 30.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ducommun does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DCO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $152.37 fair value estimate, 11.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $152.37, with a range of $152.37 to $175.23, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defense Contractor Trips Ethical Screen at High Price
Every time a fighter jet rolls off the line or a missile guidance system gets upgraded, Ducommun is somewhere in the supply chain turning raw metal and electronics into finished parts. The business sits squarely inside aerospace and defense, which immediately fails our ethical screen. We pass for that reason alone, before the numbers even enter the conversation.
Revenue is growing at 9 percent, yet profit margins sit at minus 3 percent and return on equity is minus 4 percent. The shares trade at 32.9 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 124.41 against the current 168.47 price. Analyst targets sit higher still, but none of that offsets the prohibited activity that keeps the name off any list we would consider.
The ethical failure is permanent for us, regardless of margin of safety or cyclical recovery hopes. Negative returns and a stretched multiple only reinforce the decision to stay away. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DCO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$166.70+4.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$160.28+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$160.28+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$160.28-2.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$163.79+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$163.79-0.6%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$164.79-3.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164.
2026-10-20Markdown · changed$170.59+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 38% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 107%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $164.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
