ACHR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.4B · 1,160 employees
Archer Aviation Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops aircraft and related technologies and services for commercial and defense sectors in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.71 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Archer Aviation Inc. holds its Markdown at $5.71. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 38 days
Price at the screen
$5.71
Valuation
N/A trailing · -7.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
3.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 92.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +93% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Flying taxis lose their shine once defence contracts appear
Picture a city skyline dotted with quiet electric air taxis whisking commuters above traffic. Archer Aviation wants to build those eVTOL aircraft, yet its work also reaches defence customers. That single link triggers an automatic ethical fail, so the investment case ends before any valuation debate begins. The numbers only reinforce the decision: zero profit margins, negative 48 percent return on equity and a forward multiple that is meaningless because earnings remain negative.
Analysts still rate the shares a buy with an 11 dollar median target, and the shares sit at 4.44 dollars against an internal 8.88 dollar reference. None of that matters once the prohibited activity screen is applied. The business model stays unproven at scale, cash burn is heavy and competition in urban air mobility is rising fast.
The ethical screen exists precisely to remove names like this from consideration, regardless of how the technology story develops or how far the price sits below any hypothetical fair value. Currency, execution and regulatory risks would sit high even without the defence exposure. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ACHR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Markup · changed$6.32+42.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 42.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-20Accumulation$4.44-12.6%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-18Accumulation$5.08+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-16Accumulation$5.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 55%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $11.
2026-07-03Accumulation$5.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$5.08Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.