MDA · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.7B · 4,800 employees
MDA Space Ltd.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
28.88 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
MDA Space Ltd. holds its Markdown at $28.88.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Price at the screen
$28.88
Valuation
50.67 trailing · 18.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 39.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +71% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Space Dreams Fail Before Numbers Even Matter
Picture a satellite beaming broadband to a remote village. It sounds like progress until the same technology feeds defence contracts that our screen rules out on principle. MDA Space hits that wall immediately, so we pass regardless of any modest valuation gap.
Revenue sits flat, margins scrape just 2 percent and the forward multiple stretches to 25.7 times. Those figures already signal thin returns for a business with no clear moat, yet the ethical breach alone ends the discussion before any deeper look.
Cyclical aerospace spending and shifting government budgets add further uncertainty on top of the low growth. The consensus target may sit higher, but none of it overrides the core prohibition. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MDA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
2026-07-30Distribution$30.24Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. The street (3 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $41.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.