An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $96.08
Mercury Systems, Inc. holds its Markup at $96.08.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 1 days
Price
$96.08
Valuation
N/A trailing · 62.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.93
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$96.08
N/A P/E · 62.16 fwd
Our fair value
$65.16
32% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$105.50
+10% to current
Target low $74.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $120.00
▲ current $96.08 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$96.08
you are here
Conservative
$65.16
-32%
Analyst avg
$105.50
+10%
Our fair value
$65.16
-32%
Analyst high
$120.00
+25%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
11.50%
Profit margin
-1.46%
Debt to equity
44.43
Analyst consensus
Buy · 8 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited business activity: aerospace & defense. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited business activity: Aerospace & DefenseFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Defence Electronics Name Fails Both Price and Ethics
Every missile guidance module or radar subassembly that reaches a prime contractor has to come from somewhere, and Mercury Systems sits in that supply chain. We pass on the name anyway. The ethical screen blocks any exposure to aerospace and defence work outright, and the numbers give no reason to argue the point. Revenue is rising 12 percent yet margins sit at minus 1 percent, return on equity is also negative, and the forward multiple is 62 times. Fair value sits at 65 dollars against a 96 dollar price, so the market is already paying a large premium for thin results.
Analyst targets cluster around 106 dollars and the consensus reads buy, yet those calls ignore the ethical line we draw. The business shows no obvious moat and is burning cash rather than compounding it. High multiples on negative profits usually signal hope rather than proof.
Risk centres on further cash burn if defence budgets shift or prime contractors squeeze suppliers harder. Currency and contract timing can swing results quickly in this sector. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MRCY trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$120.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-03Markup$120.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$120.30Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$91.95
+16.1%
·
$1,161
+16.1%
2 months
$79.60
+34.2%
·
$1,342
+34.2%
3 months
$81.44
+31.1%
·
$1,311
+31.1%
6 months
$76.61
+39.4%
·
$1,394
+39.4%
1 year
$52.52
+103.3%
·
$2,033
+103.3%
2 years
$30.71
+247.8%
·
$3,478
+247.8%
3 years
$42.83
+149.4%
·
$2,494
+149.4%
5 years
$66.98
+59.4%
·
$1,594
+59.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MRCY does next, these words stay.
Mercury Systems, Inc. · MRCY · Markup · $96.08
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
