Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
74.87 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price74.87 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans slightly to calls (put/call 0.75)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 74.87 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 72.43, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.75, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price74.87 USD
Fair value72.43
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown82.64-9.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-05Read Distribution89.59-16.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 26% slide in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup120.30-37.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mercury Systems, Inc. holds its Markdown at $74.87. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$74.87
Valuation
N/A trailing · 34.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mercury Systems, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +57% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defence Electronics Name Fails Both Price and Ethics
Every missile guidance module or radar subassembly that reaches a prime contractor has to come from somewhere, and Mercury Systems sits in that supply chain. We pass on the name anyway. The ethical screen blocks any exposure to aerospace and defence work outright, and the numbers give no reason to argue the point. Revenue is rising 12 percent yet margins sit at minus 1 percent, return on equity is also negative, and the forward multiple is 62 times. Fair value sits at 65 dollars against a 96 dollar price, so the market is already paying a large premium for thin results.
Analyst targets cluster around 106 dollars and the consensus reads buy, yet those calls ignore the ethical line we draw. The business shows no obvious moat and is burning cash rather than compounding it. High multiples on negative profits usually signal hope rather than proof.
Risk centres on further cash burn if defence budgets shift or prime contractors squeeze suppliers harder. Currency and contract timing can swing results quickly in this sector. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRCY trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-23Markdown$75.99-0.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-10-16Markdown$76.71-7.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$82.64-7.8%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-08-05Markup$95.97-20.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 20.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-18Markup$120.30+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 35% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 103%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 43%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
2026-07-03Markup$120.30+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$120.30Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
