VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
192.64 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
VSE Corporation holds its Distribution at $192.64. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$192.64
Valuation
61.55 trailing · 24.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aerospace Repair Firm Trips Over Ethics Screen
VSE fixes planes for airlines and governments, keeping fleets in the air across commercial and military routes. Revenue is rising fast at 27 percent, yet the shares sit above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and a forward multiple of 35 times. The business earns thin margins and low returns on equity, leaving little room for error even before valuation is considered.
We pass because the company fails our ethical screen on prohibited aerospace and defence activity. That single breach rules it out regardless of growth numbers or analyst targets. High multiples on modest profitability already look stretched, and defence exposure adds a further layer we will not accept.
The main risks sit in thin profitability, unknown competitive protection, and the usual swings that hit government and airline customers. Currency moves and contract timing can swing results quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
VSEC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-16Markup$225.45+14.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $253.
2026-07-18Markup$196.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 30%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $253.
2026-07-03Markup$196.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$196.13Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
