An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Loar Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace and defense components for aircraft, and aerospace and defense systems in the United States and internationally.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $68.45
Loar Holdings Inc. holds its Markup at $68.45.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days
Price
$68.45
Valuation
96.41 trailing · 43.51 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.47
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$68.45
96.41 P/E · 43.51 fwd
Our fair value
$56.73
17% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$82.00
+20% to current
Target low $75.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $102.00
▲ current $68.45 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$68.45
you are here
Conservative
$56.73
-17%
Analyst avg
$82.00
+20%
Our fair value
$56.73
-17%
Analyst high
$102.00
+49%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
36.10%
Profit margin
12.64%
Debt to equity
81.39
Analyst consensus
Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited business activity: aerospace & defense. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited business activity: Aerospace & DefenseFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Aerospace Supplier Hits Our Ethical Wall Hard
Every military aircraft or commercial jet carries specialised parts that keep fleets in the sky, and Loar makes many of them. We pass on the shares because the business fails our ethical screen on prohibited aerospace and defence activity, regardless of its 36% revenue growth or 13% profit margins. The 44.5 times forward earnings multiple and negative 19% margin of safety versus our fair value simply reinforce the decision.
Low 6% return on equity shows limited capital efficiency even as analysts push a buy rating and an $82 target. Strong top-line expansion cannot offset the core mismatch with our standards.
Currency swings, defence budget cycles and thin returns create real downside that the premium valuation ignores. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
LOAR trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$68.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-03Markup$68.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$68.09Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$61.22
+6.1%
·
$1,061
+6.1%
2 months
$64.32
+1.0%
·
$1,010
+1.0%
3 months
$63.03
+3.1%
·
$1,031
+3.1%
6 months
$71.37
-9.0%
·
$910
-9.0%
1 year
$82.92
-21.7%
·
$783
-21.7%
2 years
$60.50
+7.4%
·
$1,074
+7.4%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever LOAR does next, these words stay.
Loar Holdings Inc. · LOAR · Markup · $68.45
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
