NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Loar Holdings Inc.
LOAR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.1B · 1,700 employees
Loar Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace and defense components for aircraft, and aerospace and defense systems in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
64.76 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Loar Holdings Inc. holds its Markdown at $64.76. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$64.76
Valuation
91.21 trailing · 40.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aerospace Supplier Hits Our Ethical Wall Hard
Every military aircraft or commercial jet carries specialised parts that keep fleets in the sky, and Loar makes many of them. We pass on the shares because the business fails our ethical screen on prohibited aerospace and defence activity, regardless of its 36% revenue growth or 13% profit margins. The 44.5 times forward earnings multiple and negative 19% margin of safety versus our fair value simply reinforce the decision.
Low 6% return on equity shows limited capital efficiency even as analysts push a buy rating and an $82 target. Strong top-line expansion cannot offset the core mismatch with our standards.
Currency swings, defence budget cycles and thin returns create real downside that the premium valuation ignores. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LOAR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$72.72+6.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-08-04Markup$68.45+0.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-18Markup$68.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-07-03Markup$68.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$68.09Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
