NAS10026,944+1.18%S&P7,385+0.42%GOLD$4,067−1.12%BTC$75,586−0.47%VIX25.28−10.29%latest tape · as of 18:01 UTC
The Screen · Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Loar Holdings Inc.
LOAR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.4B · 1,700 employees
Loar Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace and defense components for aircraft, and aerospace and defense systems in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
72.99 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 18:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price72.99 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price72.99 USD
Fair value59.64
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup69.72+4.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 4 days
2026-11-01Read Accumulation62.11+17.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 15% slide in 8 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown72.72+0.4% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 7% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup68.09+7.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Loar Holdings Inc. holds its Markup at $72.99. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$72.99
Valuation
96.37 trailing · 42.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Loar does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today LOAR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $59.64 fair value estimate, 39.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $59.64, with a range of $59.64 to $68.59, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aerospace Supplier Hits Our Ethical Wall Hard
Every military aircraft or commercial jet carries specialised parts that keep fleets in the sky, and Loar makes many of them. We pass on the shares because the business fails our ethical screen on prohibited aerospace and defence activity, regardless of its 36% revenue growth or 13% profit margins. The 44.5 times forward earnings multiple and negative 19% margin of safety versus our fair value simply reinforce the decision.
Low 6% return on equity shows limited capital efficiency even as analysts push a buy rating and an $82 target. Strong top-line expansion cannot offset the core mismatch with our standards.
Currency swings, defence budget cycles and thin returns create real downside that the premium valuation ignores. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LOAR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$69.72+1.9%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$68.42+10.2%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$62.11+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$62.11+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markdown$61.57+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markdown$61.57+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markdown$61.57-0.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$62.00+0.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-10-18Markdown$61.85-2.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $83.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
