Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.61, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price100.08 USD
Fair value143.38
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-21Read Distribution146.40-31.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% rise in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup129.01-22.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AAR Corp. holds its Distribution at $100.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$100.08
Valuation
20.20 trailing · 14.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
AAR does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today AIR does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +52% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Defense Contractor Trips Hard Ethical Screen
When a commercial jet needs a spare part or a government contract calls for expeditionary support, AAR steps in with logistics across four segments. Yet the business lands straight on the prohibited list because of its aerospace and defense exposure. We pass for that reason alone, even before looking at the numbers.
The shares trade at 24 times forward earnings with a 5 percent profit margin and 12 percent return on equity. Revenue is growing fast at 25 percent, but the price sits 11 percent above our fair value and above the analyst median target. Opportunity rating sits at none.
Risk sits in the combination of thin margins, unknown competitive edge, and heavy reliance on government work that can swing with budgets. The ethical screen simply closes the door. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AIR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Distribution$98.59+0.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-19Distribution$97.98-2.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132.
2026-10-12Distribution$100.43-5.9%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132.
2026-10-02Distribution$106.75-14.2%Entry 13
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-09-21Distribution$124.47+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-19Distribution$124.47+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-18Distribution$124.47+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-17Distribution$124.47+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-16Distribution$124.47+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-15Distribution$124.47-15.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 15.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 73%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $132. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
