Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.42, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price79.62 USD
Fair value83.97
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Distribution91.61-13.1% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 6% rise in 11 days
2026-10-17Read Accumulation86.13-7.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 7% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-01Read Markdown92.57-14.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-01Read Markup102.91-22.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Hexcel Corporation holds its Distribution at $79.62. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$79.62
Valuation
46.27 trailing · 29.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Hexcel does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today HXL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 5.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aerospace composites hit an ethical stop sign
Every new passenger jet or defence platform that takes to the skies likely carries Hexcel's carbon fibre inside its structures. The business supplies the lightweight materials that help aircraft makers hit weight and fuel targets. We pass outright because the ethical screen flags prohibited activity in aerospace and defence.
The shares trade at $103.81 against our fair value of $80.72, a 22 percent premium. Forward earnings sit at 32.5 times while revenue grows 10 percent, margins run at 6 percent and return on equity is only 8 percent. Those figures do not justify paying up, even before the ethical block.
Valuation leaves little room for the modest returns on show, and any cyclical slowdown in aircraft orders would compress earnings quickly. The prohibited business exposure rules the name out regardless of what analysts say. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HXL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
2026-10-21Accumulation$91.61+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$91.61+6.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Accumulation$86.13+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$86.13+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$86.13+1.4%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$84.96+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$84.96+0.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-02Markdown$84.35-8.9%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 63%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $95.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
