Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
AeroVironment, Inc. holds its Markdown at $147.07. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 18 days
Price at the screen
$147.07
Valuation
N/A trailing · 33.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.41
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited business activity: Aerospace & Defense
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Investigate, American Friends Service Committee, Don’t Buy Into Occupation
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Documented on AFSC Investigate / American Friends Service Committee / Don’t Buy Into Occupation — category: Corporate Complicity Report / Annex 2 Company List. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Military drones spark excitement yet breach our line
Picture a small unmanned aircraft slipping over contested ground, feeding live video to troops who never see the operator. AeroVironment builds those systems, and demand is exploding with revenue up 133 percent. Yet the company posts a 13 percent loss margin and negative return on equity, while shares trade at 31 times forward earnings.
We pass without hesitation. The ethical screen flags aerospace and defence work as prohibited, regardless of growth rates or the 19 analysts who still rate the shares a buy. Fair value sits only modestly above the current price, but that gap means nothing once the screen is triggered.
High cyclical exposure in government contracts adds further caution, as any shift in budgets could widen the losses already visible on the income statement. The market may like the story, yet our rules are clear on this sector. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVAV trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$148.20+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Distribution$148.20+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$148.20-13.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup · changed$171.12+20.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $310. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
