Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.40, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price70.85 USD
Fair value79.65
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup70.85+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-30Read Distribution71.10-0.4% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 9% slide in 5 days
2026-10-25Read Accumulation78.22-9.4% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-18Read Markdown80.75-12.3% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 9% rise in 7 days
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Delek US Holdings, Inc. holds its Markup at $70.85. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$70.85
Valuation
21.20 trailing · 8.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.28%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
18.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 18.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Delek US Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $79.65 fair value, 47.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $79.65, with a range of $57.23 to $95.38, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Refining swings hit hard when margins vanish
Picture a refinery operator watching crude prices lurch while finished fuel spreads collapse. Delek US Holdings sits in that exact spot, posting zero revenue growth, negative profit margins and a mere 4% return on equity at a forward multiple of 26 times. The market prices the shares well above our fair value, leaving a 43% gap that offers no margin of safety and earns an opportunity rating of none.
This is a classic cyclical setup where peak-cycle earnings often mask the next downturn. Low returns and flat top-line numbers already signal the business lacks pricing power or durable advantage, even though the ethical screen clears. Analyst targets cluster near the current price, yet they rarely adjust fast enough when refining cracks turn.
The real danger lies in mistaking temporary margin recovery for structural improvement. When earnings normalise lower, a high multiple simply amplifies the downside rather than cushioning it. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$70.85-3.7%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$73.57+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$73.57+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$73.57+3.5%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$71.10+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 51% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$80.75+8.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$74.37+27.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 27.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 156%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $51.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
