2026-10-25
Par Pacific Holdings, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 16:51 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
PARR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.2B · 1,758 employees
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc., an energy company, provides renewable and conventional fuels in the United States.
Not yet scored71.28 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 16:51 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price71.28 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
- Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.58x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
- Our regime readDistribution, as of 3 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 2.05)
- Last reviewed3 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: range not available (screen dated 2026-11-03).
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 2.05, read 2026-11-03
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price71.28 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution76.24-6.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 10% slide in 7 days
2026-10-25Read Markup84.70-15.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-18Read Distribution83.74-14.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution
2026-10-11Read Accumulation84.00-15.1% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. holds its Distribution at $71.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days |
| Price at the screen | $71.28 |
| Valuation | 4.94 trailing · 5.09 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 0.75 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 32.00% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 32.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 12.44% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Par Pacific Holdings, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Par Pacific Holdings, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.58x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
The Street's RangeThird-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsCheap Refiner Faces The Classic Cycle Trap
Every time crude prices swing, refiners like this one can post fat margins for a quarter or two. Par Pacific shows a forward multiple of just 7.3 times and a 33 percent return on equity, yet revenue growth sits at only 4 percent and the opportunity rating is none. The low multiple is not a bargain. It is the market signalling that current earnings sit near a cyclical peak.
We pass because the business lives and dies with oil spreads and crack margins that rarely stay elevated for long. A 6 percent profit margin offers little cushion once demand softens or feedstock costs spike. The ethical screen clears, but that alone does not turn a commodity refiner into a durable holding.
The real risk is the value-trap pattern common in this sector: earnings look cheap on peak numbers, then collapse and the multiple expands anyway. Analyst targets sit near current levels with no margin of safety once the cycle turns. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 5.1xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 4.9xvery cheap relative to earnings |
| EPS, trailing | 17.13 |
| EPS, forward | 16.63 |
| Revenue growth | +56.8%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 9.9%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 53.5%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 1.94% |
| Debt to equity | 0.56moderate, manageable leverage |
| Current ratio | 1.84healthy short-term liquidity |
| Beta | 0.75steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.12% |
| 52-week range | 34.37 - 90.74 |
| Market cap | $4.2B |
| Employees | 1,758 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradePARR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03
Distribution $76.24
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02
Distribution $76.24
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01
Distribution · changed $76.24
-1.2% Entry 15
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31
Markup $77.15
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30
Markup $77.15
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29
Markup $77.15
-8.9% Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28
Markup $84.70
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Markup $84.70
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markup · changed $84.70
+1.1% Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 34% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-18
Distribution · changed $83.74
-0.3% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 157%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $64.50 | -10.7% | · | $893 | -10.7% |
| 2 months | $62.77 | -8.2% | · | $918 | -8.2% |
| 3 months | $53.14 | +8.4% | · | $1,084 | +8.4% |
| 6 months | $41.90 | +37.5% | · | $1,375 | +37.5% |
| 1 year | $22.39 | +157.3% | · | $2,573 | +157.3% |
| 2 years | $25.00 | +130.4% | · | $2,304 | +130.4% |
| 3 years | $23.85 | +141.6% | · | $2,416 | +141.6% |
| 5 years | $16.33 | +252.8% | · | $3,528 | +252.8% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PARR does next, these words stay.
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