NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Cosan S.A.
CSAN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.9B
Cosan S.A.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
2.90 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-07
Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Cosan S.A. holds its Markup at $2.90. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$2.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · 11.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.49
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
331.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 331.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
130.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 130.4% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $2.68 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 26.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazil fuel distributor trips on debt and losses
Every time a trucker fills up in Sao Paulo or ethanol moves from mill to port, the cash flows through Cosan. Yet this is not a business investors should chase. Weak moat, negative profit margins and an ethical screen failure on debt ratio mark it as one to pass.
Revenue growth of 26 percent looks lively, yet the firm posts a 24 percent profit margin and negative 30 percent return on equity. Forward earnings sit at 12.3 times, but this is a classic cyclical value trap in oil and gas refining. Peak-cycle numbers often flatter multiples that later collapse when commodity prices turn.
High leverage already tripped the ethical screen, and Brazil currency swings add further pressure. Four analysts see a higher target, yet the thin margin of safety offers little cushion against those swings. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CSAN trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Distribution$2.40-21.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 21.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-25Distribution$3.05+14.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-18Distribution$2.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 56%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (3 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $5.
2026-07-03Distribution$2.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$2.67Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
