NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CVR Energy, Inc.
CVI · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.2B · 1,532 employees
CVR Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in renewable fuels and petroleum refining and marketing, and nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing activities in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
52.17 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
CVR Energy, Inc. holds its Markup at $52.17. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 417 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 417 days
Price at the screen
$52.17
Valuation
75.61 trailing · 17.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.13%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 41.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Underperform. The average target sits −33% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Refiner trades above fair value in a cyclical sector
Picture a refinery whose margins rise and fall with crude prices like a tide that never settles. CVR Energy sits in that exact spot, yet the shares change hands at $35 while our fair value sits at $21. Forward earnings trade on a 20 times multiple even as the latest profit margin prints negative and return on equity barely clears 5 percent.
We pass for straightforward reasons. Revenue may be growing 20 percent, yet the business generates no real profit and carries an unknown moat. Five analysts already rate the shares underperform with a median target of $28, well below the current price.
In a cyclical industry the trap is always the same: peak earnings can make any multiple look cheap until volumes collapse again. Ethical checks clear, yet nothing here meets our opportunity bar. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CVI trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Markup · changed$31.15-11.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 11.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-25Distribution$35.13+14.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-18Distribution$30.67+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (6 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $32.
2026-07-03Distribution$30.67+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$30.67Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
