NAS10026,816−5.70%S&P7,430−3.37%GOLD$4,105+0.80%BTC$75,995−5.48%VIX25.68+54.61%latest tape · as of 16:02 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
UGP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.5B · 11,481 employees
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Ocea…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
5.60 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 16:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price5.60 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.10, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price5.60 USD
Fair value6.43
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Accumulation6.42-12.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 31% rise in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown4.89+14.5% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. holds its Distribution at $5.60. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 203 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 203 days
Price at the screen
$5.60
Valuation
12.85 trailing · 13.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
No prohibited business activity identified
Fail
Debt load
44.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.83%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.08%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ultrapar Participações does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: No prohibited business activity identified, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today UGP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $6.43 fair value, 21.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $6.43, with a range of $5.85 to $7.39, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian fuel network trades above its worth
Every time a trucker in Sao Paulo fills up or a factory in Rio turns on its boilers, Ultrapar moves the fuel through a web of local depots and pipelines. Yet the shares sit at a price that already prices in more optimism than the numbers justify. With our fair value sitting below the current quote and no real margin of safety, this is not an opportunity we take.
The business shows 10 percent revenue growth and a respectable 19 percent return on equity, but profit margins of just 2 percent leave little room for error in a sector where volumes swing with commodity prices and the Brazilian economy. A forward multiple of 10.9 times looks modest until you remember that cyclical energy names often post peak earnings right before the cycle turns, turning a low multiple into a value trap rather than a bargain.
Analysts still lean buy with a median target near the current price, and the ethical screen clears, yet the combination of thin margins, unknown competitive edge and exposure to Brazil's volatility keeps the risk too high for any allocation. We pass.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UGP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-30Accumulation$7.74-2.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-23Accumulation$7.97+1.7%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 37% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-16Accumulation$7.84+3.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-10-02Accumulation$7.58+18.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 18.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-09-15Accumulation · changed$6.42+9.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-08-15Markdown$5.85+19.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Markdown$4.89+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Markdown$4.89+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$4.89Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
