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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
UGP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.1B · 11,481 employees
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Ocea…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
7.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Ultrapar Participações S.A. holds its Accumulation at $7.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$7.56
Valuation
11.81 trailing · 11.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
No prohibited business activity identified
Fail
Debt load
44.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.83%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.08%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian fuel network trades above its worth
Every time a trucker in Sao Paulo fills up or a factory in Rio turns on its boilers, Ultrapar moves the fuel through a web of local depots and pipelines. Yet the shares sit at a price that already prices in more optimism than the numbers justify. With our fair value sitting below the current quote and no real margin of safety, this is not an opportunity we take.
The business shows 10 percent revenue growth and a respectable 19 percent return on equity, but profit margins of just 2 percent leave little room for error in a sector where volumes swing with commodity prices and the Brazilian economy. A forward multiple of 10.9 times looks modest until you remember that cyclical energy names often post peak earnings right before the cycle turns, turning a low multiple into a value trap rather than a bargain.
Analysts still lean buy with a median target near the current price, and the ethical screen clears, yet the combination of thin margins, unknown competitive edge and exposure to Brazil's volatility keeps the risk too high for any allocation. We pass.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UGP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Accumulation · changed$6.42+9.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-08-15Markdown$5.85+19.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 19.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Markdown$4.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 17% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Markdown$4.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$4.89Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
