NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 19:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sunoco LP
SUN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $14.7B · 8,910 employees
Sunoco LP, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the energy infrastructure and distribution of motor fuels in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
77.87 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-18
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Sunoco LP holds its Markup at $77.87. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$77.87
Valuation
17.19 trailing · 19.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Highway fuel flows mask a cyclical trap
Every time a lorry pulls into a forecourt, the fuel has already moved through a chain of pipelines and terminals that looks steady until volumes swing. Sunoco sits in the middle of that chain, shifting motor fuels across the United States with revenue up sharply last year. The business clears a narrow moat and passes our ethical screen, yet the numbers do not stack up for us.
We pass because the shares trade well above our fair value at a forward multiple of 22.8 times earnings while profit margins sit at just 3 percent. Revenue growth of 106 percent looks impressive on the surface, but this is a classic cyclical sector where peak volumes and peak earnings often arrive together. A low multiple would normally flag value; here the multiple is not low and the cycle risk remains.
The real danger is that strong analyst targets around 77 dollars ignore how quickly demand can fall when fuel prices spike or the economy slows. Return on equity of 15 percent is respectable yet offers little cushion once earnings normalise. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SUN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup$76.41-0.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$76.50+17.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-18Distribution$65.32+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-07-03Distribution$65.32+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$65.32Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
