Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price69.00 USD
Fair value58.16
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Distribution70.84-2.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since October
2026-10-27Read Markup74.27-7.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-10-02Read Distribution77.87-11.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-14Read Markup76.50-9.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 17% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sunoco LP holds its Distribution at $69.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$69.00
Valuation
16.40 trailing · 18.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.43
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
52.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 52.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Sunoco LP's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 52% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today SUN does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $58.16 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 164.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $58.16, with a range of $58.16 to $66.88, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Highway fuel flows mask a cyclical trap
Every time a lorry pulls into a forecourt, the fuel has already moved through a chain of pipelines and terminals that looks steady until volumes swing. Sunoco sits in the middle of that chain, shifting motor fuels across the United States with revenue up sharply last year. The business clears a narrow moat and passes our ethical screen, yet the numbers do not stack up for us.
We pass because the shares trade well above our fair value at a forward multiple of 22.8 times earnings while profit margins sit at just 3 percent. Revenue growth of 106 percent looks impressive on the surface, but this is a classic cyclical sector where peak volumes and peak earnings often arrive together. A low multiple would normally flag value; here the multiple is not low and the cycle risk remains.
The real danger is that strong analyst targets around 77 dollars ignore how quickly demand can fall when fuel prices spike or the economy slows. Return on equity of 15 percent is respectable yet offers little cushion once earnings normalise. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SUN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$70.84+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$70.84+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$74.27+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$74.27+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$74.27+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$74.27+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup · changed$74.27-0.1%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 12% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$74.35+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74.
2026-10-18Distribution$74.35-4.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 32%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $74.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
