An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $91.87
HF Sinclair Corp holds its Markup at $91.87.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-13
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 97 days
Price
$91.87
Valuation
8.76 trailing · 10.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.69
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$91.87
8.76 P/E · 10.01 fwd
Our fair value
$82.76
10% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$88.00
-4% to current
Target low $67.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $114.00
▲ current $91.87 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$91.87
you are here
Conservative
$60.30
-34%
Analyst avg
$88.00
-4%
Our fair value
$82.76
-10%
Analyst high
$114.00
+24%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
53.20%
Profit margin
6.13%
Debt to equity
32.26
Analyst consensus
Hold · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 19.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 12.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Oil Refiner Looks Cheap But Hides a Trap
Picture a refinery running flat out while petrol prices swing like a bar door in a storm. HF Sinclair turns crude into fuels and lubricants across five US segments, yet its 10.8 times forward earnings and 12 percent revenue growth sit atop a narrow moat and only 4 percent profit margins. The numbers look steady enough on paper, with 13 percent ROE and an ethical pass, but this is peak-cycle earnings dressed up as value.
We pass because the low multiple is the classic cyclical warning sign, not a bargain. When demand softens or crack spreads collapse, those earnings can drop fast and the share price follows. Analyst targets sit below the current price anyway, and a negative margin of safety confirms the market already prices in the next downturn.
Risk sits in the oil price itself plus execution on the renewables push, both outside management control. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75. Entered 2026-07-26 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-26Markup · changed$88.59+24.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Distribution$71.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Distribution$71.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$71.26Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$72.81
-1.9%
$0.50
$988
-1.2%
2 months
$57.11
+25.1%
$0.50
$1,259
+25.9%
3 months
$56.89
+25.6%
$0.50
$1,264
+26.4%
6 months
$48.56
+47.1%
$1.00
$1,492
+49.2%
1 year
$35.97
+98.6%
$2.00
$2,042
+104.2%
2 years
$48.88
+46.1%
$4.00
$1,543
+54.3%
3 years
$40.53
+76.2%
$5.90
$1,908
+90.8%
5 years
$29.41
+142.8%
$8.00
$2,700
+170.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever DINO does next, these words stay.
HF Sinclair Corp · DINO · Markup · $91.87
Recorded 2026-08-13 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
