Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price109.29 USD
Fair value94.61
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation109.29+0.0% to today ✓
2026-07-26Read Markup88.59+23.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution71.26+53.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
HF Sinclair Corp holds its Accumulation at $109.29. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 112 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 112 days
Price at the screen
$109.29
Valuation
10.42 trailing · 9.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.70
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.80%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.16%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
HF Sinclair clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 20%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Refiner Looks Cheap But Hides a Trap
Picture a refinery running flat out while petrol prices swing like a bar door in a storm. HF Sinclair turns crude into fuels and lubricants across five US segments, yet its 10.8 times forward earnings and 12 percent revenue growth sit atop a narrow moat and only 4 percent profit margins. The numbers look steady enough on paper, with 13 percent ROE and an ethical pass, but this is peak-cycle earnings dressed up as value.
We pass because the low multiple is the classic cyclical warning sign, not a bargain. When demand softens or crack spreads collapse, those earnings can drop fast and the share price follows. Analyst targets sit below the current price anyway, and a negative margin of safety confirms the market already prices in the next downturn.
Risk sits in the oil price itself plus execution on the renewables push, both outside management control. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DINO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 19.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-08-26Markup$91.87+3.7%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-26Markup · changed$88.59+24.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 24.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-18Distribution$71.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 99%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $75.
2026-07-03Distribution$71.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$71.26Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
