Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.11, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price73.63 USD
Fair value106.99
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup79.25-7.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 9% slide in 10 days
2026-10-18Read Accumulation86.99-15.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since October
2026-10-11Read Markup82.88-11.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 14% rise in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Accumulation72.48+1.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PBF Energy Inc. holds its Markup at $73.63. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 81 days
Price at the screen
$73.63
Valuation
6.98 trailing · 4.23 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.08%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
PBF Energy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 22%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today PBF passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Refiner trades rich while cycles turn sour
Picture a refinery running flat out when crude prices spike, then watching margins vanish the moment oil dips. PBF sits right in that squeeze. At $62.75 the shares already price in better days than our fair value of $47.90, so the margin of safety runs negative 24 percent and we see no opportunity here.
Forward earnings sit at 10.6 times while revenue grows 12 percent, yet profit margins scrape just 1 percent and return on equity reaches only 8 percent. In a cyclical refining business a low multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the consensus target of $46 from thirteen analysts lines up with that caution.
Ethical checks clear, which removes one red flag, but the real risk remains the industry's boom-and-bust rhythm that can trap investors holding elevated multiples when demand cools. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PBF trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markup · changed$79.25+0.0%Entry 15
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$79.25+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$79.25+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 45% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$79.25+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$79.25+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$79.25-8.9%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$86.99+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$82.88+14.3%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 118%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $44. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
