Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.34, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price13.98 USD
Fair value12.84Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Accumulation14.59-4.2% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown14.86-5.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 5% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Accumulation14.10-0.9% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-23Read Markup14.31-2.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. holds its Markdown at $13.98. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 370 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 370 days
Price at the screen
$13.98
Valuation
14.23 trailing · 12.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.68%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Black Stone Minerals, L.P. clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 12%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our model only; only one analyst covers it, too few to cross-check it.
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $12.84 fair value estimate, 13.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 8.9% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $12.84, with a range of $12.84 to $14.76, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil royalty cheques look steady until prices crash
Picture a landowner in Texas who never lifts a drill yet still gets a cut every time someone else pulls oil or gas from the ground. Black Stone Minerals does exactly that across millions of acres, generating 72% profit margins and 28% returns on equity with revenue up 8%. Those numbers look attractive on paper and the ethical screen is clear, yet we pass because this remains a pure cyclical bet on energy prices that can swing hard in either direction.
The forward multiple sits at 12.2 times earnings, which feels reasonable until you remember that peak-cycle profits often make the same multiple look expensive a year later. The current price already sits above our fair value and the single analyst note is a hold, so nothing here screams overlooked value.
Energy markets remain hostage to geopolitics, OPEC moves and demand shocks that can crush royalties overnight. Low multiples in this sector are usually a warning, not a bargain, even when the business itself clears basic ethical checks. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BSM trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$14.85+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$14.85+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$14.85+0.3%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$14.80-0.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$14.86+1.9%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$14.59+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$14.59+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$14.75-0.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-14Markdown$14.81-0.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $16.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
