NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,250+6.34%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Baytex Energy Corp.
BTE · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.5B
Baytex Energy Corp., an energy company, engages in the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
Not yet scored
5.04 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Baytex Energy Corp. holds its Accumulation at $5.04. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$5.04
Valuation
N/A trailing · 17.58 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.57
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil swings expose a classic Canadian value trap
Picture a rig in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin that only turns a profit when crude stays above a narrow band. Baytex Energy sits in that exact spot. The shares trade at twice our fair value estimate, revenue inches forward at just 2 percent, and the business is posting a 50 percent negative profit margin with an 11 percent negative return on equity. We pass.
The forward multiple of 14.7 times earnings looks reasonable until you remember this is a cyclical business. Peak-cycle earnings often produce the lowest multiples, and that is exactly the trap here. Unknown competitive position adds no cushion.
Ethical screening clears the company on standard governance checks, yet the valuation gap and industry volatility still rule it out. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BTE trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Markup · changed$4.14-1.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 147%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
2026-07-23Markdown$4.18-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 147%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
2026-07-18Markdown$4.64+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 47% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 147%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%.
2026-07-03Markdown$4.64+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$4.64Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
