NAS10026,990+1.35%S&P7,377+0.31%GOLD$4,075−0.94%BTC$75,677−0.09%VIX25.64−9.01%latest tape · as of 20:08 UTC · 7 Nov
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
NOG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.4B · 64 employees
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
22.84 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 20:08 UTC · 7 Nov · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price22.84 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Fair valueUnder review: our model's value is 1.58x the price, above our 1.35x limit.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.10, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price22.84 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup22.27+2.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 19% slide in 2 weeks
2026-10-22Read Accumulation27.44-16.8% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after an 11% rise in 7 days
2026-10-15Read Distribution24.76-7.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown23.78-4.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. holds its Distribution at $22.84. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 342 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 342 days
Price at the screen
$22.84
Valuation
N/A trailing · 4.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.28%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Northern Oil and Gas,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 44% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NOG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.58x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Oil Producers Signal Cycle Peaks Not Bargains
Picture a rig crew chasing barrels while crude prices swing like a pendulum. Northern Oil and Gas shows a forward multiple of just 5.1 times yet revenue is already shrinking 7 percent and both profit margins and return on equity sit deep in negative territory. The market hands it an apparent margin of safety but the numbers flag a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings disguise the next downturn.
We pass because low multiples in exploration and production rarely survive falling commodity prices. The business carries no clear moat and growth has turned negative which leaves little room for error when wells deplete and service costs stay sticky. Analyst targets sit higher yet history shows these calls often arrive just as the cycle rolls over.
Ethical screens clear without issue yet the structural risks around oil price volatility and negative returns remain the binding constraint. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$22.27-10.8%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-04Accumulation$24.98-11.9%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$28.35+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$28.35+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$28.35+0.3%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$28.26+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$28.26+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$28.26+3.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
