NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 19 Sep
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
NOG · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.9B · 64 employees
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
27.12 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 19 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $27.12. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 264 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 264 days
Price at the screen
$27.12
Valuation
N/A trailing · 6.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.28%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Oil Producers Signal Cycle Peaks Not Bargains
Picture a rig crew chasing barrels while crude prices swing like a pendulum. Northern Oil and Gas shows a forward multiple of just 5.1 times yet revenue is already shrinking 7 percent and both profit margins and return on equity sit deep in negative territory. The market hands it an apparent margin of safety but the numbers flag a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings disguise the next downturn.
We pass because low multiples in exploration and production rarely survive falling commodity prices. The business carries no clear moat and growth has turned negative which leaves little room for error when wells deplete and service costs stay sticky. Analyst targets sit higher yet history shows these calls often arrive just as the cycle rolls over.
Ethical screens clear without issue yet the structural risks around oil price volatility and negative returns remain the binding constraint. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NOG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markup · changed$26.02+22.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-08-07Distribution$21.19+1.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-18Distribution$20.79+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $34.
2026-07-03Distribution$20.79+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$20.79Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
