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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Crescent Energy Company
CRGY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.0B · 1,066 employees
Crescent Energy Company engages in the exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.37 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Crescent Energy Company holds its Accumulation at $15.37. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$15.37
Valuation
192.13 trailing · 6.63 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +11% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Driller Looks Cheap But Smells Like a Trap
Picture a rig crew in the Permian rushing to drill while prices are high. Crescent Energy sits in that same spot, posting 24% revenue growth yet still running a 7% negative profit margin and negative 6% return on equity. The forward multiple of 4.8 times earnings draws attention, but this is exactly the pattern that flags peak-cycle earnings rather than a durable bargain.
We pass because the business sits in a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples in exploration and production often mark the top of the commodity cycle, not the start of sustained gains. Unknown moat and the fact that the company is still losing money on equity reinforce the point that the apparent discount is more warning than opportunity.
Energy prices swing hard and fast, and any drop would quickly expose the weak underlying returns. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still show a business that struggles to earn its cost of capital through the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRGY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$11.57+7.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-25Distribution$10.75-7.2%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.58Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
