Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.63, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price11.22 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-01Read Accumulation14.20-21.0% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since October
2026-10-30Read Markup13.75-18.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-22Read Accumulation13.51-17.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown13.26-15.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 15% rise in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Crescent Energy Company holds its Distribution at $11.22. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 61 days
Price at the screen
$11.22
Valuation
106.64 trailing · 3.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
45.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 45.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.05%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Crescent Energy's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 46% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-08. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today CRGY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.96x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Driller Looks Cheap But Smells Like a Trap
Picture a rig crew in the Permian rushing to drill while prices are high. Crescent Energy sits in that same spot, posting 24% revenue growth yet still running a 7% negative profit margin and negative 6% return on equity. The forward multiple of 4.8 times earnings draws attention, but this is exactly the pattern that flags peak-cycle earnings rather than a durable bargain.
We pass because the business sits in a classic cyclical value trap. Low multiples in exploration and production often mark the top of the commodity cycle, not the start of sustained gains. Unknown moat and the fact that the company is still losing money on equity reinforce the point that the apparent discount is more warning than opportunity.
Energy prices swing hard and fast, and any drop would quickly expose the weak underlying returns. The ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still show a business that struggles to earn its cost of capital through the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRGY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$14.20+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$13.75+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup · changed$13.75-0.6%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$13.83+2.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$13.51+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$13.51+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$13.51+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-10-15Markdown$12.66-4.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 34%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
