An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $52.58
California Resources Corporation holds its Distribution at $52.58.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-06
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 16 days
Price
$52.58
Valuation
N/A trailing · 13.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.90
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$52.58
N/A P/E · 13.68 fwd
Our fair value
$54.85
4% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$78.00
+48% to current
Target low $58.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $87.00
▲ current $52.58 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$52.58
you are here
Conservative
$52.20
-1%
Analyst avg
$78.00
+48%
Our fair value
$54.85
+4%
Analyst high
$87.00
+65%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
6.70%
Profit margin
-13.37%
Debt to equity
47.22
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 18.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
California Oil Producer Offers Slim Safety in a Cycle
Picture a lone pumpjack nodding away on a California field while crude prices swing like a pendulum. California Resources pulls oil and gas from the ground and now dips a toe into carbon management, yet it still posts a 13 percent negative profit margin and negative 14 percent return on equity. Revenue edges up 7 percent but the business remains hostage to commodity swings that no spreadsheet fully captures.
We pass because the 13.7 times forward earnings multiple looks modest only until you remember this is a cyclical industry. Peak-cycle earnings often produce the lowest multiples right before the next downturn resets them, and the slim 4 percent margin of safety above our fair value does nothing to change that arithmetic. Analyst targets sit far higher, yet the numbers on the page tell a more cautious story.
Oil price drops, regulatory pressure on drilling, and execution risk in the new carbon segment all sit in the foreground. The ethical screen clears, yet none of that removes the sector's inherent boom-and-bust rhythm. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CRC trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82. Entered 2026-07-25 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-25Distribution$52.83-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-18Distribution$58.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Distribution$58.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$58.61Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$59.28
-0.1%
$0.41
$1,006
+0.6%
2 months
$66.11
-10.4%
$0.41
$902
-9.8%
3 months
$61.30
-3.4%
$0.81
$979
-2.1%
6 months
$46.52
+27.3%
$0.81
$1,291
+29.1%
1 year
$44.02
+34.6%
$1.60
$1,382
+38.2%
2 years
$44.54
+33.0%
$3.16
$1,401
+40.1%
3 years
$38.35
+54.5%
$4.37
$1,659
+65.9%
5 years
$29.48
+100.9%
$5.90
$2,209
+120.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CRC does next, these words stay.
California Resources Corporation · CRC · Distribution · $52.58
Recorded 2026-08-06 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
