Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price51.66 USD
Fair value55.89
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markdown52.58-1.7% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution58.61-11.9% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
California Resources Corporation holds its Markdown at $51.66. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-01
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$51.66
Valuation
N/A trailing · 12.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.36%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.28%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
California Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 18%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-01 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +48% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-01 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
California Oil Producer Offers Slim Safety in a Cycle
Picture a lone pumpjack nodding away on a California field while crude prices swing like a pendulum. California Resources pulls oil and gas from the ground and now dips a toe into carbon management, yet it still posts a 13 percent negative profit margin and negative 14 percent return on equity. Revenue edges up 7 percent but the business remains hostage to commodity swings that no spreadsheet fully captures.
We pass because the 13.7 times forward earnings multiple looks modest only until you remember this is a cyclical industry. Peak-cycle earnings often produce the lowest multiples right before the next downturn resets them, and the slim 4 percent margin of safety above our fair value does nothing to change that arithmetic. Analyst targets sit far higher, yet the numbers on the page tell a more cautious story.
Oil price drops, regulatory pressure on drilling, and execution risk in the new carbon segment all sit in the foreground. The ethical screen clears, yet none of that removes the sector's inherent boom-and-bust rhythm. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CRC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown$51.66-1.7%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$52.58-0.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-25Distribution$52.83-9.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-18Distribution$58.61+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (11 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $82.
2026-07-03Distribution$58.61+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$58.61Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
